2026年1月28日
The rise in European bovine hide gelatin prices in the second half of 2025 is fundamentally driven by a contraction in raw hide supply, persistently high production costs, and compounded pressures from environmental regulations and animal disease outbreaks. The global shortage of cattle is expected to sustain this upward price trend at least until late 2026 to mid-2027. As a result, Chinese bovine hide gelatin prices will follow suit, and the increase is also likely to trigger a substitution-driven rise in bovine bone gelatin prices.
The rise in European bovine hide gelatin prices in the second half of 2025 is fundamentally driven by a contraction in raw hide supply, persistently high production costs, and compounded pressures from environmental regulations and animal disease outbreaks. The global shortage of cattle is expected to sustain this upward price trend at least until late 2026 to mid-2027. As a result, Chinese bovine hide gelatin prices will follow suit, and the increase is also likely to trigger a substitution-driven rise in bovine bone gelatin prices.
I. Core Drivers of Bovine Hide Shortages and Price Rises in Europe (Production Costs, Environmental Policies, Disease)
1.Rigid Increase in Breeding Costs
·Feed and Energy: Due to extreme weather and rising transportation costs, EU corn/barley feed prices increased by 15%–22% year-on-year in 2025. High energy prices have further elevated costs for barn heating, ventilation, and processing, raising breeding costs per head by €80–€120.
·Labor and Compliance: Rising EU minimum wages and labor shortages have increased annual labor costs by 5%–7%. Breeders are also required to adopt digital equipment such as GPS tracking and electronic ear tags to meet traceability standards, adding to device and maintenance expenses.
·Herd Shrinkage: Higher dairy cow yields have reduced herd sizes, with the number of breeding beef cows down 4.2% year-on-year in 2025. Calf replenishment has declined for six consecutive months, and this supply shortfall is transmitting through the production cycle. Reduced slaughter volumes are directly limiting the supply of raw hides.
2.Structural Constraints from Tightening Environmental Policies
·Emission Reduction in Breeding: The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) now covers livestock breeding. Starting in 2025, non-compliant breeders face additional levies, prompting small-scale farmers to exit the industry. Large farms remain hesitant to expand, leading to a continued decline in cattle inventory.
·Slaughter and By-Product Processing: New EU regulations require harmless treatment of hides and other by-products, banning non-compliant waste from entering the market. This adds €0.3–€0.5 per kilogram in processing costs, further increasing raw material expenses.
·Land and Density Controls: Countries such as the Netherlands and Germany have imposed restrictions on farm expansion and lowered stocking density limits, constraining herd growth and intensifying regional supply tightness.
3.Short-Term Supply Disruption from Disease Outbreaks
·Bluetongue and Foot-and-Mouth Disease: Outbreaks of bluetongue in the Netherlands, Germany, and other countries in summer 2025 led to cattle deaths and reduced reproductive efficiency. Some farms engaged in panic selling without adequate restocking. The spread of the SAT-1 foot-and-mouth disease strain from Turkey to EU borders has triggered trade restrictions and stricter quarantine measures, causing slaughter volumes to remain low after short-term fluctuations.
·Disease Control Costs and Efficiency Losses: Mandatory vaccinations, isolation, and testing have increased disease prevention costs by €30–€50 per head. Additionally, diseases have resulted in underweight cattle and higher defect rates in hides, further reducing usable hide supply.
II. Global Cattle Breeding Trends and Bovine Hide Gelatin Price Projections
1. Current Breeding and Supply Conditions in Major Producing Countries (2025–2026)
Country/Region | Inventory & Output Trends | Key Issues | Impact on Hide Supply |
EU | Beef production down 0.8% YoY in 2025; expected to fall 3.1% in 2026 | Decline in breeding cows; long restocking cycles | Continued supply contraction; prices remain high |
U.S./Canada | Herd at near-decade lows; fed cattle prices rebounded in Q4 2025 | Drought-induced pasture degradation; weak restocking | Tight short-term supply; prices may hit new highs in Q2 2026 |
Brazil/Argentina | Stable herd in Brazil but Real depreciation; Argentina affected by inflation and policy volatility | Low transport/processing efficiency; high export costs | Limited supply elasticity; unable to quickly fill the gap |
Australia | Slow herd recovery post-drought; 2025 slaughter volume down 2% YoY | Labor shortages; strict quarantine standards | Reduced hide exports; prices prone to increases |
2. Price Trends and Duration Forecast for Bovine Hide Gelatin
·Short Term (First Half of 2026): Global cattle shortages persist. European hide prices remain high, and gelatin producers face ongoing cost pressures, with an expected price increase of 10%–15%.
·Medium Term (Second Half of 2026 – Mid-2027): If global grain harvests improve in 2026 and feed costs decline, coupled with effective restocking in some regions, supply may see marginal improvement. However, due to the long expansion cycle for cattle herds (approx. 28 months), prices will remain elevated with limited downside.
·Long Term (After Mid-2027): If environmental policies stabilize, disease control improves, and herds in major producing countries gradually recover, prices may enter a period of stabilization. However, they are unlikely to return to pre-first-half-2025 levels.
III. Impact on China’s Bovine Hide Gelatin Market
Gelatin is largely freely traded globally, with price being the key factor driving inter-market flows. Against this backdrop, rising European bovine hide gelatin prices will inevitably transmit to the Chinese market, leading to synchronized price increases domestically.